On week 51, a severe shortage of river-sea type fleet is observed in the Azov freight market. During the long period of adverse weather conditions, a large number of unshipped parcels have accumulated. Technically, the market is growing, rates have added $2 per ton for voyages with laycan in December, but in fact, there are no offers from owners, Glogos Project reports. A significant part of fleet was fixed back in early December, and the vessels still cannot go for loading. And those which have been open consider long-distance voyages on the brink of long holidays.
Uncertainty in the commodity market does not allow of properly forming parcels and predicting the movement of rates. Shippers are ready to postpone shipment dates till the first days of January for the contracted volumes. However, traders are worried about the information that the customs authorities have started checking export shipments, which may take up to 10 days. Market participants are afraid that such actions are related to the duties and the export quota which will be imposed in February. Amid the restrictions coming into effect in February, the declining purchase prices in the Russian domestic market are beginning to stimulate exports, but the conclusion of contracts for January and early February is currently in question.
Basing on the events of the 51st week Glogos Project forecasts that rates for December will rise to the level of $24-25 per ton of wheat on the Rostov to Marmara basis. For the same parcels with shipment dates on the first days of January, the rate is expected to be significantly lower, about $20-22. Considering the coming holidays, many market participants have already completed their work this year. With certain exceptions, no business activity is expected for the rest of December.
According to Glogos Project, on week 51, freight rates for 3,000-5,000 dwt vessels for wheat parcels to the Sea of Marmara made $25 pmt from Rostov and Azov, $24 pmt from Yeisk and Taganrog, and $20 from Temryuk.
Freight rates for coal to the Sea of Marmara made $24 pmt from Rostov and Azov, $23 pmt from Yeisk and Taganrog, and $21 from Temryuk.
Freight rates in the Caspian market increased by $1 pmt.
Freight rates for 3,000 dwt vessels for barley to Iran made $25 pmt from Astrakhan, $21 from Aktau and $22 pmt from Makhachkala.
Please note that the rates cited in this article are average market rates. We ask our readers to pay attention that this information is not a commercial offer and cannot be an example for comparison in commercial disputes and arbitration.