On week 35, the Azov region freight market experienced the full impact of the new crop grain inflow, and the rates reached the level of $18-19 per ton of wheat at a moment’s notice. The number of shipments of cheap grain from the elevators of the Middle Volga for the first half of September increased sharply, Glogos Project reports.
The rates growth may also be explained by the fact that deliveries will be performed by coasters via the Kavkaz roads. Thus, neither Novorossiysk nor Taman buy grains on the CPT basis at a high price, as it used to be.
Interest in the use of inland waterways is also fueled by the limitation of transportation by road as the latter is only cost-effective over short distances subject to standard load. On a more distant leg, the high prime cost of transportation is imposed on the grain price reducing the competitiveness of the offer.
In general, the freight market of the Black Sea and Azov regions shows positive growth. Rates from the deep-water ports of Ukraine rose; thus, rates on the basis of the voyage from Odessa or Nikolaev to Egypt is around $16-17 per ton subject to shipment of parcels of 10-11 thousand tons.
Owners who work from deep-sea ports are trying to fix for long-distance voyages in the growing market. Thus, shipments to the Black Sea Turkey, Marmara and Izmir are likely to be performed in small parcels by coasters from Russia.
It is possible to evaluate market prospects and make any forecasts only for a short period of time. The factors that influence both the commodity and the freight markets are very unstable, and the development vector may change quite quickly.
On the one hand, there are low yields in Romania, as well as the declining ruble and hryvnia exchange rates, which makes Russian and Ukrainian grain prices very competitive. On the other hand, the commodity market of these countries is very sensitive to changes on the world commodity exchanges; which may clearly be seen in the increasing grain price on FOB basis from Ukraine.
The growth of freight rates for cabotage transportation has reached its peak, Glogos Project experts believe. At the moment, the rates for voyages from the Middle and Upper Volga exceed the cost of rail transportation to the Sea of Azov ports and Novorossiysk, and further growth is beyond the verge of profitability.
Considering the fact that vessels will have time to perform two or three voyages before the end of river navigation, September is fixed for many owners; thus, October dates will be discussed. In view of this, the rates for cabotage transportation are unlikely to rise higher; in the export direction, though, the rates still have room for growth.
According to Glogos Project, on week 35, freight rates for 3,000-5,000 dwt vessels for wheat parcels to the Sea of Marmara made $20 pmt from Rostov and Azov, $19 pmt from Yeisk and Taganrog, and $17 from Temryuk.
Freight rates for coal to the Sea of Marmara made $19 pmt from Rostov and Azov, $18 pmt from Yeisk and Taganrog, and $16 from Temryuk.
In the Caspian region, freight rates remained on the previous week’s level.
Freight rates for 3,000 dwt vessels for barley to Iran made $20 pmt from Astrakhan, $16 from Aktau and $17 pmt from Makhachkala.
Please note that the rates cited in this article are average market rates. We ask our readers to pay attention that this information is not a commercial offer and cannot be an example for comparison in commercial disputes and arbitration.