Price fluctuations in the commodity market brought uncertainty to the freight market during the week 28. Grain prices are rising in the global market, and following the trend, domestic producers are also hiking prices. Although the latter are trying to take a balanced approach to sales, their actions lead to significant differences in idea of equilibrium price in negotiations. Buyers’ expectations that the market would push down the new crop have not materialized. Grain prices are not falling as they used to.
According to Glogos Project, in the Azov freight market, rates continue to rise amid the fulfillment of contracts previously concluded. However, work is carried out more on spot/prompt positions, and long-term contracts are not yet concluded, except for the Kavkaz roads transshipment. While at the beginning of the reporting week, the rate on the basis of the voyage from Rostov to Samsun was about $15-16 per ton of wheat, by the end of the week it increased by at least $3 for voyages in July. Rates of $18-19 per ton for voyages from Azov ports to the Turkish Black Sea coast were considered to be comfortable for owners. Based on the development of the situation in the commodity market, the dynamics for August may be predicted as early as the 30th week.
The weather in the Black Sea region negatively affects the progress of harvesting. Cropping in Ukraine is slowed down due to heavy rains. As a result, shipments from Ukrainian Black Sea ports are still not enough for ensuring stable market growth. During the reporting week, rates from Ukrainian ports to the Eastern Mediterranean and the Adriatic hovered at around $18-20 per ton for parcels of 6-10 thousand tons.
An increasing number of Russian-flagged vessels are switching to the transshipment on the Kavkaz roads. This is explained by a sharp spike of rates in this segment due to the need to fulfill major contracts. If the main part of the Russian-flagged fleet is deployed in transshipment, the rates for direct voyages from river elevators will rapidly go up due to a lack of vessels.
According to Glogos Project, on week 28, freight rates for 3,000-5,000 dwt vessels for wheat parcels to the Sea of Marmara made $19 pmt from Rostov and Azov, $18 pmt from Yeisk and Taganrog, and $17 from Temryuk.
Freight rates for coal to the Sea of Marmara made $18 pmt from Rostov and Azov, $17 pmt from Yeisk and Taganrog, and $16 from Temryuk.
The Caspian region is waiting for the new crop grain. Based on the open positions of the fleet and the level of rates discussed in the Caspian market, it is clear that active growth in this region has not yet begun. The reason is the fact that the main part of the already harvested grain from Russia’s Krasnodar Kray is shipped from deep-water ports and from the Kavkaz roads; the number of deals concluded in this region does not allow rates to grow due to high grain prices. The situation is expected to change by the end of the month. Barley from the Central regions of Russia should appear in the market in late July-early August.
Freight rates for 3,000 dwt vessels for barley to Iran made $19 pmt from Astrakhan, $13 from Aktau and $15 pmt from Makhachkala.
Please note that the rates cited in this article are average market rates. We ask our readers to pay attention that this information is not a commercial offer and cannot be an example for comparison in commercial disputes and arbitration.